Environment · Modelled projections for forests and land; these are not observed measurements.
Forests and land: France's official carbon sink weakens by 2030
Forests, grassland, deforestation: a sector that can absorb or emit millions of tonnes of CO₂. In climate accounting it is coded LULUCF (Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry; in France UTCATF). What do the WEM and WAM scenarios show?
National view: 2008-2025 trajectory
Net CO₂ sink · forests and land (WEM / WAM)
Data details
WEM net sink 2030
-17.1 Mt CO₂
Sum of CO₂ · all forests and land categories
WAM − WEM gap (2030)
-24.0 Mt CO₂
Effect of additional land measures
WEM weakening 2025 → 2030
-27.8 → -17.1 Mt
-10.7 Mt fewer net removals
WEM net sink 2050
-11.0 Mt CO₂
End of available trajectory (forests and land projections)
Key facts
- WEM scenario: net CO₂ sink (forests and land) goes from -27.8 Mt (2025) to -17.1 Mt (2030), a weakening of -10.7 Mt in net removals.
- Over 2022 → 2030 (WEM), the net sink moves from -41.4 to -17.1 Mt CO₂ (-59% in absolute terms).
- In 2030, WAM projects -41.1 Mt net vs -17.1 Mt under WEM: the gap reflects much more ambitious assumptions on forest and soil management.
- In 2030 (WEM), managed forests: -18.0 Mt CO₂, deforestation: +32.6 Mt: deforestation emissions offset part of the forest sink.
- By 2050 (WEM), the net sink is only -11.0 Mt CO₂: the official trajectory assumes structural weakening of forests and land.
- WAM is modelled only for 2025 and 2030 for forests and land; beyond that, only the WEM curve is available for this sector.
Forests and land: the carbon sink in national projections
Forests, farmland and grasslands can absorb or emit CO₂ from year to year (reforestation, deforestation, soil management). In climate accounting it is labelled LULUCF (Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry; in France UTCATF). Official projections treat this sector separately from totals that exclude it. That is why totals with or without this sink are not directly comparable.
WEM · With Existing Measures
Existing measures
"The sink weakens over time"
The WEM scenario assumes already enacted forest and land policies only.
Net CO₂ sink goes from −41 Mt (2022) to −17 Mt (2030), then −11 Mt (2050): net removals shrink over time.
Deforestation remains a major emitter (+33 Mt CO₂ in 2030), while managed forests absorb about −18 Mt.
WAM · With Additional Measures
Additional measures
"A much bolder bet on soils and forests"
WAM adds extra measures: faster reforestation, grassland management, fewer forest conversions.
In 2030, net sink reaches −41 Mt CO₂, 24 Mt of additional net removals compared with WEM (−17 Mt): a major driver of the national WAM − WEM gap.
WAM data only for 2025 and 2030 for forests and land.
Why multiple series?
In 2030, the WAM − WEM gap on forests and land alone is about −24 Mt CO₂ (−41 vs −17). Comparable to the ~51 Mt gap on national totals excluding this sector: land management is as important a policy lever as energy.
Analogy: The forests and land sector is France's carbon savings account. Under WEM you keep saving, but less each year. Under WAM you make a large deposit in 2030, lowering emissions totals when this sink is included.
What this is not
- These are modelled projections, not satellite or inventory measurements.
- Only CO₂ is aggregated here (the sector file also has CH₄, N₂O by category).
- National totals including forests and land come from the national projections total, not directly from this sector breakdown.
Main items · forests and land in 2030 (Mt CO₂)
What these figures do not show
Modelled projections for forests and land, not the annual CITEPA inventory. CO₂ aggregation only. See also the national GHG projections insight for totals with and without forests and land.
Sources
Projections nationales GES · forêts et sols (LULUCF)Ministère de la Transition écologique · 2026-05-28