Environment · Projections · not observed emissions.
France's GHG projections: what do official scenarios show?
Between already enacted measures (WEM) and additional measures (WAM), how much CO₂ does France still project for 2030?
National view: 2008-2025 trajectory
Projected total emissions (Mt CO₂e) · excl. forests & land
Data details
CO₂ share (WEM 2030)
75 %
245 Mt CO₂ out of 326 Mt total excl. forests & land
ETS · non-ETS split (2030, WEM)
69 · 253 Mt
Regulatory split
Total incl. forests & land (2030)
WEM 320 · WAM 250 Mt
Wider inventory scope
Net forests & land sink (2030)
WEM -6.5 · WAM -24.7 Mt
Reported net removals
Power carbon intensity (WEM)
27.8 → 18.2 tCO₂/MWh
Power and heat generation
Key facts
- WEM scenario (existing measures): 366 → 326 Mt CO₂e between 2025 and 2030 (-11 %).
- By 2050, WEM projects 230 Mt CO₂e (-37 % vs 2025).
- WAM scenario (additional measures): 355 → 275 Mt CO₂e in 2030 (-23 % vs 2025).
- WAM − WEM gap in 2030: -51 Mt CO₂e (additional policies = lower trajectory).
- In 2030, the energy sector accounts for 218 Mt (WEM) vs 175 Mt (WAM), a 43 Mt sector gap on the national total.
- CO₂ makes up about 75 % of the total excluding forests and land in 2030 (WEM scenario).
- With forests and land (LULUCF), the WEM 2030 total rises to 320 Mt (net removals: -6.5 Mt).
WEM and WAM: two scenarios, two levels of ambition
France's Ministry for Ecological Transition does not publish a single “true” future emissions curve. It publishes two official scenarios, WEM and WAM, which answer a simple question: what happens if we only implement policies already enacted, or if we go further?
WEM · With Existing Measures
With existing measures
“We continue on rules already adopted”
The WEM scenario assumes France applies only climate and energy policies already decided and in force: vehicle standards, plant closures, renovation schemes, etc.
No new future laws are added. It is the path “if nothing more is decided from today onward”, which still implies significant effort, as many measures roll out over years.
On the chart, the WEM line shows where emissions would land without extra climate ambition beyond the current policy framework.
WAM · With Additional Measures
With additional measures
“We also implement what is planned on top”
The WAM scenario adds policies announced, planned, or under adoption but not yet fully captured in WEM: new regulations, accelerations in national plans, etc.
It is the path “if stated ambition is fully delivered”: not wishful thinking, but a realistic administrative baseline as modelled by government services.
Projected emissions are lower than in WEM: WAM quantifies the estimated impact of additional measures.
Why multiple series?
In 2030, WAM is about 51 Mt CO₂e below WEM. That gap is not a mistake: it is the rough magnitude of emissions avoided if additional policies are implemented. In short: the extra effort between “already enacted” and “enacted + planned” is worth ~51 Mt in 2030 in this dataset.
Analogy: WEM is your drive if you follow the GPS route as set today. WAM is the same trip if you also take the planned shortcuts (new tolls, speed limits, etc.): not a tech miracle, but additional policy effort.
What this is not
- These are not weather-style forecasts (“it will be exactly X”): they are scenarios built on policy assumptions.
- They are not measured annual emissions (for historical data, see the national CITEPA / SNBC inventory).
- They do not guarantee France will hit these numbers: delivery of laws and rules matters.
- WAM is only modelled for 2025 and 2030 at national level in this file; beyond that, only WEM is available.
Emissions by major sector in 2030 (Mt CO₂e, excl. forests & land)
What these figures do not show
These are official projections (WEM / WAM scenarios), not the historical emissions inventory. Main scope: total excluding forests and land (LULUCF). WAM is only published for 2025 → 2030 at aggregate level; beyond that, only the WEM curve is available. Sources used for these indicators are listed below.
Sources
Projections nationales des émissions anthropiques de GES · Totaux et secteurs (hors forêts et sols)Ministère de la Transition écologique · 2026-05-28
Projections nationales des émissions anthropiques de GES · Intensités (production électrique et chaleur)Ministère de la Transition écologique · 2026-05-28